Q2 2009 data signals changes in world trade patterns

“The impact on the import/export balance of container traffic is dramatic,” says Mike Garratt of MDS Transmodal. “In Q2 2008 there were only 56 tonnes of Chinese imports for every 100 tonnes exported. One year later, that figure has grown to 80 tonnes. If that trend continues, container lines will have to seriously address their strategies.”

He says that Chinese exports drive the overall demand for global shipping capacity. “Here the picture is bleak. A year on year fall of 23% for Q1 2009 has been followed by a 22% decline in Q2 2009. The best that can be said is the decline has been arrested. Q2 2009 results are 24% lower than in Q3 2008, the peak quarter of all time.”

The destination of Chinese exports has been examines and concluded that the decline in the ability of the West to consume Chinese goods is widespread. Ranking destination countries by their container tonnages received in 2008, growth cannot be found for Q2 2009 until China’s 22nd ranked export destination is reached (Saudi Arabia).