US Ports: Import container traffic status and outlook

“As we move closer to the end of the year and get updated numbers, we’re seeing a steady improvement with year-on-year declines becoming smaller,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “This doesn’t mean that the challenges are behind us, but retailers are slowly starting to import more merchandise and that’s a positive sign.”

The 12.7m teu forecast for 2009 will be a drop of 16.8% from last year’s 15.2m teu and the lowest since the 14m teu imported in 2004. However, it is a definite improvement from Port Tracker’s earlier forecasts – 12.3m teu in August and 12.5m in September. NRF and IHS said the upward revisions assume imports will grow as retailers anticipate improving economic conditions.

In September, Port Tracker predicted year-on-year declines of 18% for October, 13% for November, 2% for December and 18% for January. For February 2010, the prediction is for volumes to fall below 1m teu for the first time since April 2009. However, at 973,872 teu they will be up 16% from February 2009 and the first year-on-year increase in more than two years. February is traditionally the slowest month of the year, coming after the holiday season and before spring and summer merchandise reaches the docks.