The HSBC ‘Global Connections’ report, which examines global trade trends during the next five, ten and 15 years, also finds that US export growth to Europe is expected to recover to a pace of 6% per year during the period of 2012 to 2020.
The HSBC trade forecasts, produced in association with Oxford Economics, examine bilateral trade corridors between 23 major trading nations and reveals:
• India and China will be joined by emerging trading nations including Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Mexico and Poland to record significant trade growth in the next three years.
• By 2020, HSBC expects that forward-thinking companies worldwide will have developed multiple trade corridors and partnerships, created effective networked supply chains and tightened efficiency in their operations as a result.
• Echoing the US findings, India represents the fastest growing import or export partner (or both) between 2013-15 or 2016-2020.
• US exports will increasingly find their way to rapidly growing consumer markets in developing economies, as growth prospects for the industrialised nations remain subdued.
• Over the medium term, the value of US goods exports destined for the economies of Asia (excluding Japan) is forecast to rise at an average annual rate of 8% throughout the period 2021-2030.
• Vietnam is expected to record double digit annualised trade growth throughout the forecast period of 2012-30 and is expected to become an increasingly important source of US imports.
In the shorter-term, the companion HSBC Trade Confidence Index (TCI) conducted twice a year for HSBC by TNS, finds US-based importers and exporters are still maintaining a steady confidence about their expected trade volumes during the next six months.
Nearly half (48%) of US importers and exporters foresee their trade volumes increasing. Although the outlook has weakened a little compared to six months ago, 65% of US businesses anticipate that the global economy will remain at current levels or grow in the near future.
(Source: Business Wire)