Where Do the Boxes Go? Mapping Alternative Capacity Outside the Straits

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and the Red Sea under renewed attack, the container industry faces a question it has never had to answer at this scale: where does the cargo actually go? The theoretical alternatives — Cape of Good Hope, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, overland rail through Saudi Arabia — exist in strategy documents and investor presentations. Translating any of them into functioning supply chains is a different proposition entirely.

The Cape of Good Hope is, at present, the only working alternative — and it solves only half the problem. Rerouting via southern Africa adds 10 to 14 days on the Asia-Europe corridor and consumes significant additional fuel, but it keeps containers moving. Carriers have been operating Cape routings since the Houthi campaign forced diversions from the Red Sea in late 2023, and the operational template is established.

What the Cape cannot do is replace access to the Persian Gulf itself. A vessel rounding the Cape can reach the Mediterranean or Northern Europe. It cannot reach Jebel Ali, Khalifa, Hamad or Dammam without transiting the Strait of Hormuz on return.