The cost of Hormuz: how a three-week war is rewriting supply chains from the Gulf to the US inland

Three weeks into the conflict that effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the crisis has entered a new phase. The initial shock — carrier withdrawals, booking suspensions, force majeure declarations — has given way to something more consequential: a wholesale restructuring of how cargo moves between Asia, the Middle East and the West, with costs propagating far beyond the chokepoint itself. The most striking development is Iran’s transformation of a blockade into a toll system.

According to Lloyd’s List, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has established a controlled shipping corridor through Iranian territorial waters via Larak Island, where IRGC Navy personnel conduct visual inspections of approved vessels. At least nine ships have exited the strait through the corridor, including two Indian-flagged gas tankers, Shivalik and Nanda Devi. In at least one confirmed case, a tanker operator paid around US$2m for safe passage — a figure separately reported by Bloomberg and confirmed by an Iranian lawmaker speaking to Iran International.

The Financial Times reported that payments are accepted in cash, cryptocurrency or through barter. What makes this more than a wartime anomaly is the diplomatic architecture forming around it. India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia and China are all in direct talks with Tehran over vessel transit arrangements, according to Lloyd’s List.