Container trade recovery dependent on alliances, says Drewry

Drewry’s Container Annual Review & Forecast 2014/15 report emphasises that the recovery of the container industry, when that happens – possibly by late 2016 or 2017 – is to be based around the formation of the new mega alliances and the continued reduction of unit costs, rather than the matching of supply and demand at the individual trade route level. A different recovery is taking shape, which is unlikely to be built on any improvement in freight rates.

An orderbook that will see at least 53 and 45 ULCVs delivered in 2015 and 2016 respectively, coupled with the delivery of 100 ships of between 8,000-10,000 teu from the yards at the same time as a similar number of ships being cascaded from the Asia-north Europe trade – will mean both reductions in unit costs and the potential for excess capacity on some routes.

Drewry forecasts that freight rates will decline in 2015 by as much as 3-4% year-on-year.