Container overcapacity looms

Despite the looming overcapacity, 239 cellular ships (1.77m teu) were ordered in 2011, with an aggregated value of US$19.5bn. The order book reached 620 ships for 4.3m teu on 31 December 2011, representing 28% of the existing cellular fleet (15.4m teu).

A total of 90 cellular ships (105,500 teu) left the fleet in 2011, of which 70 units (85,100 teu) were scrapped. Of the 20 other ships, 17 units were de-celled and converted into bulk/break-bulk vessels and three units were lost.

The 8.2% fleet growth expected for 2012 presents a serious challenge for the industry, as the demand growth is expected to weaken to 6.5%, against an estimated 7.7% growth in 2011. The order book bias toward large ships will exacerbate the oversupply afflicting the main East-West trades.